Plaid Cymru top latest Senedd voting poll, with Reform UK matching Labour votes

Plaid Cymru are leading the latest Senedd voting intention poll for the first time since 2019, with Welsh Labour tying with Reform UK.
The latest Barn Cymru poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, predicts Plaid Cymru would be ahead by a point with 24 per cent of the vote, with Welsh Labour and Reform UK both on 23 per cent and the Welsh Conservatives behind on 19 per cent.
Dr Jac Larner from the Wales Governance Centre described the poll – the first since the UK General Election and Eluned Morgan’s election as First Minister – as unprecedented.
“We essentially have a three-way tie in current vote intention between Plaid Cymru, Labour and Reform UK. The Conservatives sit in fourth place on. This is unprecedented for a Senedd poll in Wales.
“This is the first YouGov poll since 2019 which has showed Plaid Cymru ahead in Senedd vote intention, albeit within the margin of error. Prior to the General Election in July, we observed a growing trend of switching between Labour and Plaid Cymru support in polls, something which continues here: 24% of Labour voters say they will vote for Plaid Cymru in a devolved election. This switching has always occurred, but this poll adds to the evidence that it is becoming the political preference of a growing number of voters.”
Senedd voting intention
It’s been a turbulent year for Labour in Wales, now on their third First Minister of 2024 after Vaughan Gething’s resignation in the summer. The party is also facing pressure over their UK party’s actions in withdrawing the winter fuel allowance for older people and changing inheritance tax thresholds for farmers. With around 18 months until the next Senedd election in May 2026, the poll shows Reform UK equalling the Brexit Party’s highest ever place in the polls and Labour dropping four points.
Dr Larner says: “While it’s tempting to interpret this as a direct transfer of supporters between Labour and Reform, it’s important to note that we can’t examine individual switching in this poll.  Instead the vast majority of Reform support has come from previous Conservative voters and even in this poll 17% of 2024 Conservatives voters say they will vote reform compared to 6% of Labour voters. Reform will now face a strategic choice: to go after remaining Conservative support in Wales, or to pivot and try to pick off former Labour voters.”
“With the Conservatives on 19% – probably not as bad as they feared – there is very little room for smaller parties and, depending on the geographic spread of the vote, would suggest that they will struggle to win any representation in the next Senedd. If the election result in 2026 is even close to resembling this poll it will necessitate some form of cooperation between parties in order to form a government.
“Finally, while the topline results are dramatic, this is of course just one poll and we must remember that we are asking people to consider how they would vote using an electoral system very few will be familiar with in constituencies that don’t yet exist. It’s likely we will see a lot of volatility in vote intention over the next 18 months.”
The Barn Cymru poll usually features Westminster voting intention alongside the Senedd, but YouGov were unable to provide data for this time as they are still reviewing their processes following July’s General Election. But they were able to ask how people rated the performance of the UK Government so far.
In general, would you say that the UK Government is doing a good job or a bad job?
When it came to the UK Government’s handling of the economy, 15% thought it was doing well versus 58% who said it was doing a bad job. For tackling crime, again 15% thought the government was doing well, with 51% saying it wasn’t, and just 11 per cent thought the government was doing well in supporting businesses, with 51% disagreeing.
Recent weeks have seen protests at Westminster and at Welsh Labour conference against changes to inheritance tax on agricultural land announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her October 30th budget. A total of 64% of respondents thought the issue had been handled badly, with 15% thinking the government had handled it well.
Dr Larner said: “When looking at perceptions of UK government performance on a range of key metrics like the economy, tackling crime and supporting business, respondents were largely negative with a majority in every category saying the UK Government was doing a bad job. Concerningly for the government, perceptions of their handling of changes to inheritance tax on farms was particularly negative, even among their own voters with a plurality of 2024 Labour voters saying they’d handled it badly.”
But while the general response was negative for the UK government, Dr Larner said there are some positives.
“While there is little good news for Keir Starmer in the numbers, general perceptions of UK Government performance are still considerably better than that of the previous Conservative government. The most recent Welsh Election Study in July revealed that 74% of respondents thought the Conservative job was doing a bad job of running the country. That compares to 54% in this poll for the Labour Government.”
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “This poll is a historic turning point for Wales. People are recognising that Plaid Cymru under Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership is the clear alternative to Labour, offering the only programme of positive change to improve lives.“If these figures are repeated at the election, Plaid Cymru would become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time ever. Meanwhile, Labour’s support is collapsing, exposing their failure to deliver.
“Promises of a partnership of delivery between the UK and Welsh Labour governments are ringing hollow. Pensioners are losing their winter fuel allowance. Record-high NHS waiting lists remain unresolved. There is no clear plan to improve our education system, no strategy to grow the economy or create well-paid jobs, and our public transport system continues to leave communities disconnected.“As Labour continue to let down our communities, Plaid Cymru can lead the way with a fresh, positive ‘Made in Wales’ agenda for government. Only Plaid Cymru offers a chance for Wales to unite behind a hopeful and forward-looking vision.“Momentum is with Plaid Cymru. Rhun ap Iorwerth offers the new leadership people are crying out for. We will fix the NHS, give young people the tools to succeed, rebuild the economy, and demand fairness from Westminster. Wales deserves better.”
Commenting on the latest polling, Reform UK Chairman, Zia Yusuf:”This polling shows Reform has all the momentum and is becoming a huge force in Wales.
“Essentially a three way dead heat already between Reform, Labour and Plaid Cymru, with Reform four points ahead of the hapless Tories.”All this and our campaign infrastructure has barely had time to have impact yet. We have now opened branches in every Welsh constituency. “The Welsh people are ready for real change, that’s what Reform will deliver.
Barn Cymru Poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Total sample size: 1,121 adults. 25th-29th November.